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Understanding Fundamental Analysis (FA) in Trading

NEBAINVESTMENT


Key Insights

Fundamental analysis (FA) allows traders to assess asset values based on an examination of economic and financial aspects, giving them access to potential investment opportunities.

Popular Financial Analysis tools include earnings per share (EPS), price earnings ratio, price-to-book (P/B), earnings growth factor (EGF), network value transactions ratio and price mining breakeven ratio.


FA can offer important perspectives; however, interpretation may vary widely - this underlines its value when combined with technical analysis or other assessment techniques in creating more efficient trading strategies.


Introduction

Navigating the trading landscape - be it stocks or cryptocurrency - does not come with an exact formula; even if one existed, Wall Street professionals would remain closely guarded of its existence. Instead, traders and investors rely upon various tools and methodologies categorized under fundamental analysis (FA) or technical analysis (TA).


This article presents fundamental analysis, providing readers with an invaluable tool for strengthening trading strategies by developing deeper insight into asset valuation.


Defining Fundamental Analysis 

Investors and traders use fundamental analysis to ascertain the true market price for assets or businesses by taking into account all internal and external influences that might potentially determine its true worth, helping practitioners create strategies with maximum return potential.


At first glance, assessing a company's financial health can appear straightforward; earnings statements, balance sheets and cash flows must all be reviewed; however upon further exploration this becomes much more complex; market position, competitive landscape, demographic targets and expansion plans all must also be factored into analysis to provide asset performance context within their larger economic environment. 

There are two primary approaches in FA:


Bottom-Up Approach

Focuses on individual companies, starting with a specific business and expanding outward to understand its role in the broader economy.

Top-Down Approach

Begins with the macroeconomic environment and narrows down to specific sectors or companies that are well-positioned within that context.

The ultimate objective is to estimate an asset's expected price and compare it to its current market price. A higher expected price suggests undervaluation, while a lower one indicates overvaluation, guiding buy or sell decisions accordingly.


Fundamental Analysis Versus Technical Analysis

Newcomers to markets such as cryptocurrency, forex and stocks may struggle when selecting either Fundamental or Technical analysis tools; both offer essential market intelligence through different principles and tools - however their choice depends on individual investors based on their goals for trading and their personal preferences versus any objective considerations! 


Fundamental Analysts

Believe that the market price does not always reflect an asset's true value. They focus on intrinsic factors to make investment decisions.


Technical Analyst

Generally they utilize quantitative techniques - all provide invaluable market intelligence regardless of which you select! Energies!


Financial professionals recognize that market prices cannot accurately depict an asset's true worth; when making investment decisions they take into account intrinsic factors as part of making informed choices.


Technical analysts believe they can predict price movements based on historical price and volume data, placing more weight on chart patterns, trends and indicators rather than external influences.


The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) states that using only technical analysis alone to outwit the market is impossible - all relevant data has already been factored into asset prices. But fundamental analysis remains invaluable when planning long-term investments as its approach takes account of economic and financial aspects which technical analysis may miss.


Successful traders often combine fundamental analysis (FA) and technical analysis (TA), taking advantage of each strategy's individual benefits when devising trading plans.


Essential Indicators in Fundamental Analysis


Fundamental analysis (FA), unlike technical analysis (TA), employs specific financial metrics and qualitative factors to appraise asset values. Below are among the more frequently employed FA indicators: Earnings Per Share (EPS).


Equity Producing Share (EPS) is one of the primary measures of organizational profitability, measuring how much profit was produced per outstanding share and calculated accordingly - for instance: "EPS = Equity Producing Share".


Earnings Per Share (EPS)

EPS is a key measure of a company's profitability, indicating how much profit is generated per outstanding share. It is calculated as:

(net income - preferred dividends) / number of shares

For instance, a company with a net income of $1 million and 200,000 shares outstanding has an EPS of $5. A higher or increasing EPS generally makes a company more attractive to investors. Diluted EPS accounts for potential shares from stock options, providing a more conservative profitability measure.

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio compares a company’s current share price to its EPS:

share price / earnings per share

Using the previous example, if the share price is $10, the P/E ratio is 2. A lower P/E may indicate that a stock is undervalued, while a higher P/E suggests overvaluation. Comparing P/E ratios across similar companies can provide additional context, though it should be used alongside other metrics for a well-rounded analysis.

Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio

The P/B ratio evaluates a company's market value relative to its book value:

price per share / book value per share

For a company with a book value of $2.5 per share and a share price of $10, the P/B ratio is 4. This indicates that the stock is trading at four times its book value, which may suggest overvaluation unless justified by future growth prospects. The P/B ratio is particularly useful for assessing asset-heavy industries.

Price/Earnings-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio

The PEG ratio extends the P/E ratio by incorporating the company's expected earnings growth rate:

price-to-earnings ratio / earnings growth rate 

If a company has a P/E ratio of 2 and an expected growth rate of 10%, the PEG ratio is 0.2. A PEG ratio below 1 typically indicates that the stock is undervalued relative to its growth potential, making it an attractive investment.

Network Value-to-Transactions (NVT) Ratio

In the cryptocurrency space, the NVT ratio serves as an analog to the P/E ratio:

network value / daily transaction volume

A lower NVT ratio suggests that the network’s value is justified by its transaction volume, indicating potential undervaluation. Conversely, a higher NVT ratio may signal overvaluation. This metric helps assess the economic activity underlying a cryptocurrency.

Active Addresses

The number of active addresses on a blockchain network can provide insights into its usage and adoption. While not infallible, as the metric can be manipulated, it offers a glimpse into the network’s activity levels. Higher active addresses typically correlate with greater network utilization and potential value appreciation.

Price-to-Mining-Breakeven Ratio

This ratio evaluates the profitability of mining a cryptocurrency by comparing its market price to the cost of mining:

coin market price / cost to mine a coin

A ratio above 1 indicates profitability, encouraging more miners to join, which can sustain or increase the coin’s value. A ratio below 1 suggests mining is unprofitable, potentially leading to a reduction in mining activity and affecting the coin’s stability.


Whitepaper, Team, and Roadmap

When investing in cryptocurrency markets, quality considerations such as whitepaper quality, team competency evaluation and roadmap clarity become major priorities. A detailed whitepaper which details goals, use cases and technological framework will build trust among investors; team evaluation provides assurance about project's viability; while an extensive roadmap offers visibility of progress while long-term viability of enterprise.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Fundamental Analysis 

Advantages of Fundamental Analysis

Fundamental analysis has become one of the primary tools of business evaluation worldwide, giving investors insight that technical analysis cannot. By considering multiple qualitative and quantitative aspects simultaneously, fundamental analysis provides investors a foundation from which they can make wise trading decisions that yield higher returns.


Fundamental analysis can be easily accessible to everyone as its techniques and data sources are readily available in traditional markets. But in cases involving highly correlated assets or where data sources become limited or scarcer, fundamental analysis might become less useful and effective.


Fundamental analysis provides the framework needed for identifying stocks with undervalued, long-term growth potential - an approach employed successfully by Warren Buffett and Benjamin Graham with great results for themselves and other investors alike.

Disadvantages of Fundamental Analysis

Although fundamental analysis might appear easy, mastery requires considerable skill. Accurately estimating a stock's intrinsic value requires an intensive process which goes far beyond plugging numbers into formulae; multiple factors need to be assessed prior to providing estimates that become estimates - creating an insurmountable learning curve for beginners. Furthermore, fundamental analysis is best used as long-term investments rather than quick trades.


John Maynard Keynes famously noted in one of his lectures that fundamental analysis often fails to detect key market dynamics and trends that technical analysis seeks to detect.


"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."


This statement signifies that stocks that seem undervalued may not necessarily increase as expected; market behavior often contradicts fundamental indicators and could cause investments to fail even with comprehensive plans in place.

Conclusion

Fundamental analysis remains a vital tool for traders and investors seeking to understand the intrinsic value of assets and make informed trading decisions. By combining FA with technical analysis, traders can achieve a more holistic view of the markets, enhancing their ability to identify profitable opportunities. While FA is particularly suited for long-term investments, its integration with TA can benefit various trading styles. As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, mastering both fundamental and technical analysis will equip traders with the insights needed to navigate this dynamic landscape successfully. Always conduct thorough research and implement robust risk management strategies to optimize your trading outcomes.