7 Frequent Pitfalls in Technical Analysis (TA)
Breaking news: mastering TA isn’t simple! Anyone who has traded for even a short while realizes that making mistakes is inevitable. Indeed, losses cannot be entirely avoided by any trader – even seasoned ones who stumble less frequently.
However, a handful of beginner-level errors are almost universally made when starting out. The most successful traders remain flexible, think logically, maintain composure, have a clear strategy, and steadily interpret the ongoing signals of the market.
Strive to do the same if long-term success is your goal. Developing these qualities allows for controlling risk, assessing slip-ups, leveraging personal strengths, and continually advancing. Endeavor to remain the calmest individual in the room, particularly when circumstances appear bleak.
So, how can you steer clear of the most obvious pitfalls?
Introduction
Technical analysis (TA) is widely employed to examine the dynamics of financial markets. Application of TA principles can be done across various asset classes, encompassing equities, foreign exchange, precious metals like gold, and digital currencies.
Though the foundational notions of TA are relatively straightforward, achieving true mastery is challenging. Acquiring a new skill often involves numerous errors, and this can be especially damaging in trading or investing. Careless mistakes or failing to learn from them can lead to substantial capital loss. While learning from errors is beneficial, minimizing their occurrence in the first place is even more valuable.
This article highlights some of the most frequently encountered TA errors. If the concept of TA is unfamiliar, consider reviewing basics first. Check out “What is Technical Analysis?” and “5 Essential Indicators Used in Technical Analysis.”
Which mistakes occur most frequently among beginners practicing technical analysis in their trading?
1. Failing to Cut Your Losses Early
Begin with a quote from commodities trader Ed Seykota:
“The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance.”
This step sounds simple, yet bears repeating. Protecting your capital should stand as your top priority in both trading and investing.
Starting a trading journey may feel intimidating. A reasonable initial objective is not to strive for big wins, but to avoid major losses. Consider starting small or experimenting without risking actual funds. On Binance Futures, for example, there’s a testnet available for practicing strategies before putting real money at stake. Safeguarding capital and risking it only after consistently achieving positive outcomes makes sense.
Placing a stop-loss is pure pragmatism. Each trade must include a point of invalidation – a level at which acknowledging a flawed trade idea is necessary. Without this mindset, long-term progress is unlikely. Just one severe misstep might wreak havoc on your portfolio, leaving you holding a losing position and hoping for a future market rebound.
2. Trading Excessively (Overtrading)
Active traders often mistakenly believe they must always hold a position. In reality, trading involves substantial analysis and often long periods of patient waiting. Some strategies might yield very few high-quality opportunities in an entire year, yet still produce impressive results.
Reflect on this insight from day-trading pioneer Jesse Livermore:
“Money is made by sitting, not trading.”
Avoid entering trades merely for activity’s sake. It’s not mandatory to be involved at all times. In certain market phases, choosing to remain inactive and wait for favorable conditions is actually more profitable. Preserving capital for future promising trades is key, and opportunities will inevitably resurface.
A related misstep is focusing too heavily on short-term time frames. Generally, conclusions derived from higher time frames are more reliable. Lower time frames tend to be noisier, encouraging frequent and potentially less profitable trades. While successful scalpers do exist, short-term approaches are inherently riskier, making them ill-suited for novices.
3. Revenge Trading After Losses
A common scenario involves traders desperately trying to recoup a substantial loss immediately. This behavior is known as revenge trading. Whether you identify as a technical analyst, day trader, or swing trader, sidestepping emotionally driven decisions is crucial.
Maintaining composure when everything runs smoothly or when minor mistakes occur is easy. However, can you remain calm under severe stress? Will you adhere to your plan when chaos unfolds and others panic?
The word “analysis” in technical analysis implies an analytical, methodical approach. Why make hasty, emotion-fueled judgments in such a context? To rank among the best traders, stay levelheaded even after significant setbacks. Avoid impulsive actions, and keep a logical mindset.
Attempting to trade immediately after a severe loss often leads to even bigger setbacks. For this reason, some traders pause and take a break following a large loss, returning only when their minds are clear.
4. Being Too Inflexible to Change Your Outlook
Achieving success in trading demands the courage to frequently change your perspective. Markets transform rapidly, and that change is guaranteed. Your role is to detect these shifts and adapt. A strategy thriving in one environment may fail miserably in another.
Legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones offers this approach:
“Every day I assume every position I have is wrong.”
Trying to invalidate your own assumptions by questioning them is a solid habit. This process broadens your investment theses, improving your decision-making capabilities.
Cognitive biases also deserve attention. Such biases can distort judgment, limit possibilities, and hinder rational thinking. Becoming aware of common cognitive biases influencing your trading can help neutralize their negative impact.
5. Overlooking Extreme Market Conditions
At times, TA’s predictive power diminishes. Black swan events or other intense market disruptions driven by emotional extremes can invalidate standard analysis techniques. Ultimately, markets reflect supply and demand, and there are moments where extreme imbalance prevails.
Consider the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum. A reading below 30 can suggest oversold conditions. However, this doesn’t guarantee a swift rebound. It just highlights that selling pressure dominates at present.
The RSI can plunge to extremely low values during exceptional situations. Even an incredibly oversold reading may not signal an imminent reversal.
Blindly relying on technical signals in extraordinary conditions can lead to substantial losses. Market trends can persist longer than indicators might suggest. It’s vital to take other factors into account rather than depending solely on one tool.
6. Forgetting That TA Relies on Probabilities
Technical analysis deals with probabilities, not certainties. Regardless of your chosen methodology, no outcome is guaranteed. Your assessment might strongly suggest a price move in a certain direction, yet that remains only a probability.
Incorporating this understanding into your trading plans is essential. Even experienced traders shouldn’t assume markets will validate their predictions. Doing so risks excessive position sizes and could result in catastrophic financial damage.
7. Following Others Blindly Without Understanding
To improve continuously and master a skill, persistent practice and adaptation are key. In the world of trading, shifting market conditions make ongoing learning essential. One effective method involves observing seasoned traders and analysts.
Yet, achieving consistent success also requires forging your own path. Each trader must identify their strengths and carve out a unique advantage – their own “edge” in the market.
Reading interviews with top traders reveals a range of methods. What excels for one might be unworkable for another. Profiting in the markets can occur through countless strategies. Find the one that best matches your temperament and style.
Basing entries solely on another person’s analysis might succeed occasionally, but mindless imitation won’t produce long-term stability. This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t learn from others. Just ensure you understand the underlying rationale and confirm it aligns with your trading approach. Blindly trusting others, no matter how reputable, is never advisable.
Concluding Thoughts
This overview covered several key TA mistakes to avoid. Remember that trading isn’t simple, and approaching it with a long-term mindset is generally more sustainable.
Becoming proficient requires time, ongoing practice, and dedication. Over that journey, refining strategies, generating independent trading ideas, and identifying both strengths and weaknesses will help you stay in control of your investment decisions.
In the end, consistent advancement and careful self-improvement set the stage for long-term success.